Bunker Busters and Hidden Stockpiles Shape Iran’s Nuclear Future

The recent coordinated airstrikes by the United States and Israel have inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, yet a host of critical questions remain unresolved regarding the program’s true status and future viability.

President Donald Trump hailed the attack as a major success, claiming that Iran’s three primary nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, had been “wiped out.” Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this assessment, describing the facilities as “destroyed.” However, an initial evaluation by the U.S. The Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) offered a more cautious perspective. It said the strikes caused a lot of damage but did not completely destroy the sites.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, reported “extensive damage” to enrichment equipment, including centrifuges at Fordo and Natanz. These centrifuges are key to helping Iran make uranium pure enough for nuclear weapons. Before the attacks, Iran had over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. If enriched further to 90%, this uranium could potentially be utilised to manufacture several nuclear bombs.

There is still uncertainty about the removal of this stockpile prior to the attacks. According to people familiar with the DIA’s secret report, some enriched uranium might have been moved before the strikes. The assessment was classified as having “low confidence,” indicating the possibility of errors. In response, the White House promptly dismissed this perspective, highlighting the effectiveness of the 14 bunker-buster bombs deployed in the attack.

Satellite images have prompted various interpretations regarding the events leading up to the strikes. Photographs taken days prior revealed trucks and bulldozers positioned near the Fordo facility. Former U.S. intelligence official Eric Brewer suggested it was “plausible” that Iran employed these vehicles to extract nuclear materials.

On the other hand, Jacob Kirkegaard of the Breugel think tank argued the activity likely served as a decoy.

Further imagery revealed that Iran attempted to seal the entrances to Fordo’s underground tunnels with dirt and concrete. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed that U.S. munitions subsequently removed these barriers by force.

In the aftermath, Iran launched retaliatory strikes against American and Israeli targets before agreeing to a fragile ceasefire. Despite the damage inflicted, Iranian officials have pledged to rebuild and continue their nuclear activities.

As international inspectors seek access to the affected sites and intelligence agencies review fresh evidence, a clear consensus has yet to emerge on whether Iran’s nuclear program has been fundamentally disrupted or merely delayed.