Reform UK Surges Ahead as Farage Emerges as Potential Prime Minister, New Poll Shows

British politics has entered uncharted territory, as a new Ipsos poll reveals Reform UK has taken a commanding nine-point lead over Labour, positioning party leader Nigel Farage as a likely candidate for Prime Minister if a general election were held tomorrow.

The poll, based on a nationally representative sample of 1,180 adults, places Reform at 34%, ahead of Labour at 25%, and the Conservatives trailing at 15% their lowest-ever result recorded by Ipsos. These figures represent a dramatic reversal just one year after Labour’s landslide 2024 general election victory.

If the polling were reflected in an actual election, Labour would see its majority wiped out, falling from 403 seats to around 140, while the Conservatives would be reduced to a mere 10 seats. Reform UK, long regarded as a political outsider, would be in a position to form a government.

The results point to widespread voter disillusionment. Only 19% of respondents said they were satisfied with Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s performance, while 73% expressed dissatisfaction. Discontent appears particularly strong among Labour’s base: 54% of 2024 Labour voters have shifted their support, many now backing Reform. The Conservatives are seeing similar erosion, with 48% of their former voters also defecting.

“Disappointment with Labour is clear, even among those who supported the party just a year ago,” said Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos. “Frustration with the lack of progress on key issues like immigration, the cost of living, and public services is fuelling the rise of Reform.”

Despite internal tensions, including the recent resignation and rapid return of Reform’s adviser Zia Yusuf, following a dispute over comments made by new MP Sarah Pochi, the party’s momentum has only grown. Farage, known for his populist style and ability to connect with disaffected voters, has capitalised on the widespread desire for change.

“This isn’t just a protest, it’s a political reckoning,” Farage said during a recent speech in Stoke-on-Trent. “The British public is sending a clear message: the status quo is no longer acceptable.”

With no general election expected until 2029, the current government remains in power. But the poll results have sent shockwaves through Westminster, suggesting that Reform’s rise is not a temporary shift, but the beginning of a major realignment in British politics.